How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? June 23rd, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Iran Is in Focus—Here’s What You Need to Know
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This isn’t a doomscroll though after the past week you might feel that you’re living through one. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’re experiencing right now.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: off less than 1% (-1% last week)
- S&P 500: +2% (-1% last week)
- Nasdaq: +1% (off less than 1% last week)
For the second straight week stocks were flat to lower with Iran in focus. One of the major storylines heading into the previous week was the Israel-Iranian war, and specifically the impact on oil prices as they surged following the initial strikes by Israel. The Iranian storyline is obviously still front and center in the conversation entering this week, but of course this time with the U.S. front and center in the conversation alongside Israel following Saturday's successful attack on Iran’s nuclear program using B-2 bombers and MOP bunker buster bombs (the most significant non-nuclear weapon in the world).
With so much related news, it’s almost easy to forget that the Federal Reserve met, leaving interest rates unchanged as was expected. So now what? Oil is trading higher to start the week, which is to be expected given that just over a fifth, 21% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz which borders Iran. Importantly, while higher, oil hasn’t spiked significantly, at least yet, as there is no current indication of supply disruptions as a result of the escalation of the conflict. Standby for news...throughout the week.
As for cryptos...
Bitcoin backed away from what was close to an all-time high recently, near $110,000, and it was a mixed bag for digital tokens generally. Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: -5% last week +7% YTD
- Ether: -10% last week -34% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -1%, last week -2% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.39
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.15
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 43% drop from here—flat with last week as stock prices fell slightly while fundamentals were unchanged. The market is still slightly historically expensive; however, we have seen a 5% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 43% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.